SHEPHERDS of people, had need know the
calendars of tempests in state; which are com-
monly greatest, when things grow to equality; as
natural tempests are greatest about the Equinoc-
tia. And as there are certain hollow blasts of wind,
and secret swellings of seas before a tempest, so
are there in states:
--Ille etiam caecos instare tumultus
Saepe monet, fraudesque et operta tunescere bella.
Libels and licentious discourses against the state,
when they are frequent and open; and in like sort,
false news often running up and down, to the dis-
advantage of the state, and hastily embraced; are
amongst the signs of troubles. Virgil, giving the
pedigree of Fame, saith, she was sister to the Giants:
Illam Terra parens, irra irritata deorum,
Extremam (ut perhibent) Coeo Enceladoque sororem
Progenuit.-
As if fames were the relics of seditions past; but
they are no less, indeed, the preludes of seditions to
come. Howsoever he noteth it right, that seditious
tumults, and seditious fames, differ no more but
as brother and sister, masculine and feminine; es-
pecially if it come to that, that the best actions of
a state, and the most plausible, and which ought
to give greatest contentment, are taken in ill sense,
and traduced: for that shows the envy great, as
Tacitus saith; conflata magna invidia, seu bene
seu male gesta premunt. Neither doth it follow,
that because these fames are a sign of troubles, that
the suppressing of them with too much severity,
should be a remedy of troubles. For the despising
of them, many times checks them best; and the
going about to stop them, doth but make a wonder
long-lived. Also that kind of obedience, which
Tacitus speaketh of, is to be held suspected: Erant
in officio, sed tamen qui mallent mandata impe-
rantium interpretari quam exequi; disputing, ex-
cusing, cavilling upon mandates and directions, is
a kind of shaking off the yoke, and assay of dis-
obedience; especially if in those disputings, they
which are for the direction, speak fearfully and
tenderly, and those that are against it, audaciously.
Also, as Machiavel noteth well, when princes,
that ought to be common parents, make them-
selves as a party, and lean to a side, it is as a boat,
that is overthrown by uneven weight on the one
side; as was well seen, in the time of Henry the
Third of France; for first, himself entered league
for the extirpation of the Protestants; and pres-
ently after, the same league was turned upon him-
self. For when the authority of princes, is made
but an accessory to a cause, and that there be other
bands, that tie faster than the band of sovereignty,
kings begin to be put almost out of possession.
Also, when discords, and quarrels, and factions
are carried openly and audaciously, it is a sign the
reverence of government is lost. For the motions
of the greatest persons in a government, ought to
be as the motions of the planets under primum
mobile; according to the old opinion: which is,
that every of them, is carried swiftly by the
highest motion, and softly in their own motion.
And therefore, when great ones in their own
particular motion, move violently, and, as Tacitus
expresseth it well, liberius quam ut imperan-
tium meminissent; it is a sign the orbs are out
of frame. For reverence is that, wherewith princes
are girt from God; who threateneth the dissolving
thereof; Solvam cingula regum.
So when any of the four pillars of government,
are mainly shaken, or weakened (which are relig-
ion, justice, counsel, and treasure), men had need
to pray for fair weather. But let us pass from this
part of predictions (concerning which, neverthe-
less, more light may be taken from that which
followeth); and let us speak first, of the materials
of seditions; then of the motives of them; and
thirdly of the remedies.
Concerning the materials of seditions. It is a
thing well to be considered; for the surest way to
prevent seditions (if the times do bear it) is to take
away the matter of them. For if there be fuel pre-
pared, it is hard to tell, whence the spark shall
come, that shall set it on fire. The matter of sedi-
tions is of two kinds: much poverty, and much dis-
contentment. It is certain, so many overthrown
estates, so many votes for troubles. Lucan noteth
well the state of Rome before the Civil War,
Hinc usura vorax, rapidumque in tempore foenus,
Hinc concussa fides, et multis utile bellum.
This same multis utile bellum, is an assured and
infallible sign, of a state disposed to seditions and
troubles. And if this poverty and broken estate in
the better sort, be joined with a want and necessity
in the mean people, the danger is imminent and
great. For the rebellions of the belly are the worst.
As for discontentments, they are, in the politic
body, like to humors in the natural, which are apt
to gather a preternatural heat, and to inflame.
And let no prince measure the danger of them by
this, whether they be just or unjust: for that were
to imagine people, to be too reasonable; who do
often spurn at their own good: nor yet by this,
whether the griefs whereupon they rise, be in fact
great or small: for they are the most dangerous
discontentments, where the fear is greater than
the feeling. Dolendi modus, timendi non item.
Besides, in great oppressions, the same things that
provoke the patience, do withal mate the courage;
but in fears it is not so. Neither let any prince, or
state, be secure concerning discontentments, be-
cause they have been often, or have been long, and
yet no peril hath ensued: for as it is true, that every
vapor or fume doth not turn into a storm; so it is
nevertheless true, that storms, though they blow
over divers times, yet may fall at last; and, as the
Spanish proverb noteth well, The cord breaketh at
the last by the weakest pull.
The causes and motives of seditions are, innova-
tion in religion; taxes; alteration of laws and cus-
toms; breaking of privileges; general oppression;
advancement of unworthy persons; strangers;
dearths; disbanded soldiers; factions grown des-
perate; and what soever, in offending people,
joineth and knitteth them in a common cause.
For the remedies; there may be some general
preservatives, whereof we will speak: as for the
just cure, it must answer to the particular disease;
and so be left to counsel, rather than rule.
The first remedy or prevention is to remove, by
all means possible, that material cause of sedition
whereof we spake; which is, want and poverty in
the estate. To which purpose serveth the opening,
and well-balancing of trade; the cherishing of
manufactures; the banishing of idleness; the re-
pressing of waste, and excess, by sumptuary laws;
the improvement and husbanding of the soil; the
regulating of prices of things vendible; the moder-
ating of taxes and tributes; and the like. Generally,
it is to be foreseen that the population of a king-
dom (especially if it be not mown down by wars)
do not exceed the stock of the kingdom, which
should maintain them. Neither is the population
to be reckoned only by number; for a smaller num-
ber, that spend more and earn less, do wear out an
estate sooner, than a greater number that live
lower, and gather more. Therefore the multiply-
ing of nobility, and other degrees of quality, in an
over proportion to the common people, doth speed-
ily bring a state to necessity; and so doth likewise
an overgrown clergy; for they bring nothing to
the stock; and in like manner, when more are bred
scholars, than preferments can take off .
It is likewise to be remembered, that forasmuch
as the increase of any estate must be upon the
foreigner (for whatsoever is somewhere gotten, is
somewhere lost), there be but three things, which
one nation selleth unto another; the commodity as
nature yieldeth it; the manufacture; and the vec-
ture, or carriage. So that if these three wheels go,
wealth will flow as in a spring tide. And it cometh
many times to pass, that materiam superabit opus;
that the work and carriage is more worth than the
material, and enricheth a state more; as is notably
seen in the Low-Countrymen, who have the best
mines above ground, in the world.
Above all things, good policy is to be used, that
the treasure and moneys, in a state, be not gath-
ered into few hands. For otherwise a state may
have a great stock, and yet starve. And money is
like muck, not good except it be spread. This is
done, chiefly by suppressing, or at least keeping
a strait hand, upon the devouring trades of usury,
ingrossing great pasturages, and the like.
For removing discontentments, or at least the
danger of them; there is in every state (as we
know) two portions of subjects; the noblesse and
the commonalty. When one of these is discontent,
the danger is not great; for common people are of
slow motion, if they be not excited by the greater
sort; and the greater sort are of small strength,
except the multitude be apt, and ready to move of
themselves. Then is the danger, when the greater
sort, do but wait for the troubling of the waters
amongst the meaner, that then they may declare
themselves. The poets feign, that the rest of the
gods would have bound Jupiter; which he hearing
of, by the counsel of Pallas, sent for Briareus, with
his hundred hands, to come in to his aid. An em-
blem, no doubt, to show how safe it is for mon-
archs, to make sure of the good will of common
people. To give moderate liberty for griefs and dis-
contentments to evaporate (so it be without too
great insolency or bravery), is a safe way. For he
that turneth the humors back, and maketh the
wound bleed inwards, endangereth malign ulcers,
and pernicious imposthumations.
The part of Epimetheus mought well become
Prometheus, in the case of discontentments: for
there is not a better provision against them. Epime-
theus, when griefs and evils flew abroad, at last
shut the lid, and kept hope in the bottom of the
vessel. Certainly, the politic and artificial nourish-
ing, and entertaining of hopes, and carrying men
from hopes to hopes, is one of the best antidotes
against the poison of discontentments. And it is a
certain sign of a wise government and proceeding,
when it can hold men's hearts by hopes, when it
cannot by satisfaction; and when it can handle
things, in such manner, as no evil shall appear so
peremptory, but that it hath some outlet of hope;
which is the less hard to do, because both particu-
lar persons and factions, are apt enough to flatter
themselves, or at least to brave that, which they
believe not.
Also the foresight and prevention, that there be
no likely or fit head, whereunto discontented per-
sons may resort, and under whom they may join,
is a known, but an excellent point of caution. I
understand a fit head, to be one that hath great-
ness and reputation; that hath confidence with
the discontented party, and upon whom they turn
their eyes; and that is thought discontented, in his
own particular: which kind of persons, are either
to be won, and reconciled to the state, and that in
a fast and true manner; or to be fronted with some
other, of the same party, that may oppose them,
and so divide the reputation. Generally, the divid-
ing and breaking, of all factions and combinations
that are adverse to the state, and setting them at
distance, or at least distrust, amongst themselves,
is not one of the worst remedies. For it is a desper-
ate case, if those that hold with the proceeding of
the state, be full of discord and faction, and those
that are against it, be entire and united.
I have noted, that some witty and sharp
speeches, which have fallen from princes, have
given fire to seditions. Caesar did himself infinite
hurt in that speech, Sylla nescivit literas, non po-
tuit dictare; for it did utterly cut off that hope,
which men had entertained, that he would at one
time or other give over his dictatorship. Galba un-
did himself by that speech, legi a se militem, non
emi; for it put the soldiers out of hope of the dona-
tive. Probus likewise, by that speech, Si vixero,
non opus erit amplius Romano imperio militibus;
a speech of great despair for the soldiers. And
many the like. Surely princes had need, in tender
matters and ticklish times, to beware what they
say; especially in these short speeches, which fly
abroad like darts, and are thought to be shot out of
their secret intentions. For as for large discourses,
they are flat things, and not so much noted.
Lastly, let princes, against all events, not be
without some great person, one or rather more, of
military valor, near unto them, for the repressing
of seditions in their beginnings. For without that,
there useth to be more trepidation in court upon
the first breaking out of troubles, than were fit.
And the state runneth the danger of that which
Tacitus saith; Atque is habitus animorum fuit, ut
pessimum facinus auderent pauci, plures vellent,
omnes paterentur. But let such military persons be
assured, and well reputed of, rather than factious
and popular; holding also good correspondence
with the other great men in the state; or else the
remedy, is worse than the disease.
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